A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
